A definitive model for predicting absolute risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in male and female people with Type II diabetes is not yet available. This paper provides an equation for estimating the risk of new CHD events in people with Type II diabetes, based on data from 4540 U.K. Prospective Diabetes Study male and female patients. Unlike previously published risk equations, the model is diabetes-specific and incorporates glycaemia, systolic blood pressure and lipid levels as risk factors, in addition to age, sex, ethnic group, smoking status and time since diagnosis of diabetes. All variables included in the final model were statistically significant (P < 0.001, except smoking for which P = 0.0013) in likelihood ratio testing. This model provides the estimates of CHD risk required by current guidelines for the primary prevention of CHD in Type II diabetes.
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Research Article|
November 21 2001
The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56)
Richard J. STEVENS;
1Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HE, U.K.
Correspondence: Dr Richard J. Stevens (e-mail richard.stevens@dtu.ox.ac.uk).
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Viti KOTHARI;
Viti KOTHARI
1Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HE, U.K.
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Amanda I. ADLER;
Amanda I. ADLER
1Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HE, U.K.
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Irene M. STRATTON;
Irene M. STRATTON
1Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HE, U.K.
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Rury R. HOLMAN
Rury R. HOLMAN
1Diabetes Trials Unit, Oxford Centre for Diabetes, Endocrinology and Metabolism, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Infirmary, Woodstock Road, Oxford OX2 6HE, U.K.
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Publisher: Portland Press Ltd
Received:
December 18 2000
Revision Received:
May 23 2001
Accepted:
August 21 2001
Online ISSN: 1470-8736
Print ISSN: 0143-5221
The Biochemical Society and the Medical Research Society © 2001
2001
Clin Sci (Lond) (2001) 101 (6): 671–679.
Article history
Received:
December 18 2000
Revision Received:
May 23 2001
Accepted:
August 21 2001
Connected Content
A correction has been published:
The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56)
Citation
Richard J. STEVENS, Viti KOTHARI, Amanda I. ADLER, Irene M. STRATTON, Rury R. HOLMAN; The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56). Clin Sci (Lond) 1 December 2001; 101 (6): 671–679. doi: https://doi.org/10.1042/cs1010671
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